Summary of the Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook
Written by Susan Pollack, Edited by Sandra Anagnostakis

USDA Tree Nut Crop Report, September 2004

NASS released its first forecasts for the 2004/2005 crops of hazelnuts and walnuts this month. Hazelnut production is projected to increase 16 percent from last year to 44,000 tons. This year's crop, if realized, will be the second straight year of increasing crop size, unusual for hazelnuts, which generally produce on a cyclical basis. Excellent growing conditions along with excellent early season bloom and pollination contributed to the very heavy nut set.

Walnut production is projected to fall slightly, to 325,000 tons this season from 326,000 tons in 2003/04. This year is considered to be the off-year for walnut production which usually results in a marked decline in crop size. A 2-percent increase in bearing acreage along with excellent growing conditions this year contributed to the larger-than-usual off-cycle crop size.

The 2003/04 hazelnut season finished in June with U.S. per capita consumption declining slightly to 0.05 pound, despite a large crop. High exports and low imports for the year contributed to the lower consumption.

The 2003/04 walnut season ended in July. Walnut consumption averaged 0.47 pound per person for the year, 12 percent above the previous year. While production was slightly lower in 2003/04 than the previous year, beginning stocks were at an all time high, providing sufficient supply to meet the increased demand.

Acres planted to tree nuts increased 12 percent between the 1997 and 2002 Census. Not all nut industries enlarged, however. The pistachio, almond, and walnut industries expanded while hazelnut and pecan acreage declined. Almonds had the third greatest number of acres in production, followed by pecans, of all fruit and tree nut crops. Pecan acreage is widely dispersed and hard to track. The number of acres planted to pecan trees fell only 1 percent between the two Census years. Almond acreage continued its aggressive growth pattern that it has had for many years now. Interestingly, while most of the U.S. fruit and tree nut industry is most responsive to changes in domestic consumption because the U.S. market dominated their sales, the almond industry has been enlarging in response to strong international demand, relying on exports for the bulk of its sales. Strong grower prices even during record crop years have led growers to increase their plantings. While the number of acres planted to almonds rose 22 percent during the 5-year period, the number of farms growing almonds declined, indicating farms are becoming larger.

Pistachio acreage grew the fastest during the 5-year period of all fruit and tree nut crops, increasing 26 percent. Walnut acreage increased 15 percent.

*Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture www.ers.usda.gov